Intergenerational Income Mobility and the Feelings of White People (with Lars Osberg & Stephen Law). Revisions requested by Social Forces.
Abstract: More inclusive growth may foster white nationalism. Using the US Opportunity Atlas, we find positive intergenerational income rank mobility for visible minority groups and negative mobility for Whites in most US census tracts – i.e., an erosion of `White privilege'. Using the 2016 American National Election Study, we show that US-born White males in states with less intergenerational income rank mobility expressed more authoritarian ideals, greater support for Trump, and increasingly more negative feelings toward inclusivity. In states where at least one visible minority group had above average income rank mobility, these attitudes became stronger - but were tempered when Whites also experienced above average income rank mobility. Further, the impact of income rank mobility on the attitudes of US-born Whites was driven by residents of `blue wall' states, and those with above-average GDP growth. Consequently, relative growth matters, fostering increased interest in populist ideals among groups whose rank mobility declined.
Evaluating policies to improve food affordability, nutrition and food security in Canada's remote Northern communities (with Nicholas Li, Tracey Galloway, & Angela Daley).
Abstract: Canada's remote Northern communities have persistently high rates of food insecurity due to incomes that are low relative to the high price of food and other goods. The Federal government mitigates food insecurity through income supports - ranging from national entitlements like child benefits to recent region-specific measures like the Inuit Child First Initiative (ICFI) - and through the Nutrition North Canada (NNC) retail subsidy that lowers prices for select foods shipped to remote communities. Using administrative and household survey data, in addition to exogenous variation from recent enhancements to child benefits and retail subsidies, we provide the first systematic quantitative evaluation and comparison of these programs regarding their per dollar impacts on nutritious food shipments and food insecurity, along with an analysis of their distributional effects. Our analysis highlights an important policy trade-off, as current NNC food subsidies are more effective at increasing nutritious food shipments and reducing marginal food insecurity, but child benefits -- including both means tested benefits and universal benefits like the ICFI Hamlet Food Voucher Program - are much more progressive and effective at reducing severe child food insecurity.
Rule of thumb: Intimate partner violence in Ecuador (with Paola Beneras).
Abstract: This paper examines the impact of a woman's financial resources on the probability of intimate partner violence (IPV) in Ecuador. The 2011 wave of the National Survey on Family Relations and Gendered Violence Against Women includes a suite of economic well-being questions, differentiating between stocks and flows of economic resources, the extent of their liquidity, and a relative comparison between the husband and wife concerning to whom these resources belong. Results show that a woman's access to money for personal expenses is strongly associated with a lower probability of violence. And, this relationship extends to physical, psychological, social, and economic violence, while also being independent of controls for income, assets, relative earnings, and education. Further, results persist when using doubly robust regression techniques to address compositional differences concerning economic resources. These findings support a household bargaining model, whereby having money for personal expenses increases a woman's `threat point' as it concerns leaving a relationship. In particular, it affords them greater protection against `male backlash' -- i.e., a man asserting their dominance via force because of a woman's economic well-being. Consequently, policies providing short-term financial relief to women leaving relationships may help reduce the prevalence of IPV in Ecuador.
Insecurity, intolerance, and the social safety net: Did COVID-19 change the political implications of risk-pooling in the US? (with Lars Osberg & Stephen Law).
Abstract: This study uses the 2016 and 2020 American National Election Study (ANES) panel dataset to examine the impacts of economic insecurity on social and political attitudes. Using the 2016 cross-sectional wave of the ANES, Watson et al. (2022) found that sociotropic insecurity predicted increased authoritarianism, adverse feelings toward "out-groups", and greater support for Trump. They argue that during an era of economic growth, belief that there is still little security for "people like me" predicts more insular attitudes and increased support for a "strong man" who promises to restore their economic well-being. The 2020 presidential election year was different - dominated by COVID-19, which produced a dramatic rise in economic insecurity. However, because the federal government responded with unprecedentedly large transfer payments, whose "lump-sum" design implied greater proportionate benefits for low-income households, inequality declined. Sociotropic insecurity in 2020 was associated with the opposite set of attitudes - i.e., greater inclusivity, reduced authoritarianism, and less support for Trump. Results persist when restricting the sample to those with above average levels of insecurity in 2016 and are robust to confounding factors such as state-level heterogeneity in mask mandates and COVID-19 severity. Difference-in-differences estimates, based on being in the highest quartile of sociotropic insecurity in 2020, support a causal relationship. Sociotropic insecurity in 2020 is also associated with more support for increased welfare spending and providing more help to Black Americans, suggesting that social safety nets that financially offset economic hazards during adversity may foster social solidarity.